2008 Auto Sales To Begin Trickling In

Though 2008 ended five days ago, sales for the year (and the month of December) were calculated through January 2, 2009. In times past, dealers were routinely closed on New Year’s Day, but most automaker incentives now extend through the first few days of the new year, hence the extension of the selling season to include the holiday.

December sales are just now coming in and the preliminary figures are ugly. Chrysler will likely report a drop in sales of about 48% over December 2007, slightly worse than what they reported in November. GM will probably see sales slide just above 40% while Toyota will not be far behind. Honda and Ford will see sales drop by about 36% if estimates hold true.

All automakers will have reported December figures by today which means that 2008 totals will be final. Thus, we’ll know for certain just how bad the year was. Early estimates show sales falling by about 17% for the year a terrible year to year decline that has taken its toll on the economy.

There will be some bright spots in 2008′s figures, although you’ll have to look hard to find them. In all likelihood, Subaru will have actually posted a gain for the year, thanks to its fleet of economical vehicles. Introducing an all new Forester later in the year certainly helped, as buyers flocked to this popular model.

Hybrid sales were slammed, initially for lack of availability but then as customers avoided these cars when gas prices collapsed in the fall. With the average price of a gallon of regular fuel now about $1.60, few people want to pay a premium price for these types of vehicles.

The Ford F Series will retain its position as the best selling truck in America, but its role as the best selling vehicle could be threatened if Toyota sold more Camrys or Corollas. My thinking is that Ford had a nice December sales surge for its iconic truck line, keeping it ahead of the pack once again.

Going forward, there are a lot of question marks about 2009 thanks to the recession. However, now that GM has access to federal money and GMAC is offering low cost auto loans, GM may actually see a rebound in the first quarter. Not a huge spike, but enough to stem the bloodletting. Chrysler is still waiting for federal funds while Ford hopes that its Spring release of the Mustang and its Fusion/Milan/MKZ triplets bolsters sales.

Toyota, Honda and Nissan have all cut back on production while Hyundai and Kia are looking for every opportunity to pick up market share as is Volkswagen. BMW and Mercedes have cut back as well, as demand for luxury cars is down. Expect that most of the other sellers in the US to slash their forecasts for 2009.

One consolation for everyone is that the year is finally over. In truth, it may not make much of a difference for some dealerships, car manufacturers, and consumers, but psychologically 2009 had one advantage: we’re given a fresh start.

Please visit The Auto Writer tomorrow for a December and annual sales recap.